Day 4 US Open Write-up - Wawrinka vs. Etcheverry!

 And we're back (back again! [Loudmouth's back, tell a friend.  He is back, he is back, he is back, he is back, na na na....)


Alright, enough bad Eminem rapping.  But we are pretty pumped since our bet came through yesterday...Stricker won outright but easily covered the 6.5 (in fact, the only two sets Tsitsipas won were both tiebreaks!)  Onto today's match, where we have the older, big-hitting, slightly immobile Stan Wawrinka vs. the younger, big-hitting, slightly immobile Tomas Martin Etcheverry.

The Pick: Wawrinka -5 games (-110)

First of all, a statistical comparison between the two players:


W-LHld%Break%SPW%RPW%
Wawrinka12-782.219.765.935.7
Etcheverry5-676.619.162.735.6

Overall, we can see that Wawrinka overall is a bit better, mostly due to performing better on serve (82% vs. 77% hold percentage for Etch).

Also, it's worth looking at each player's recent form, looking at performance since Aug 1.  

Etcheverry's last 3 matches:

  • vs. Virtanen (US Open): 6-3 6-7 1-6 6-4 7-6
  • vs. Fokina (Cincinatti): 3-6 3-6
  • vs. Korda (Toronto): 3-6 2-6
Wawrinka's last 5 matches:
  • vs. Nishioka (US Open): 7-6 6-2 6-4
  • vs. Purcell (Cincinatti): 4-6 2-6 (worth noting that this was day match after a night match)
  • vs. Tiafoe (Cicinatti): 6-3 6-4
  • vs. Nakashima (Cincinatti): 6-3 6-7 6-3
They played H2H at Wimbledon (second round) earlier this year.  Neither of these players are great on grass, but Wawrinka won in 4 sets by 6 games.

Overall, Wawrinka is better in every area; he has a slight advantage on the forehand wing (Etch's best wing) and large advantages on the serve and forehand wing.    You could argue Etch might have a better return of serve but it's close, movement I'd give a slight edge to Wawa but it's close.  Net game is basically a wash.  Wawrinka is also in better form at the moment and is coming off a straight-set win, whereas Etch is coming off a 5-set grind vs. a Challenger level player.

The Pick: Wawa -5 (Wawrinka in 3 is +150 and that's not a bad look either).



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