Shanghai Day 6! Humbert vs. Tsitsipas

 OK!  We are back.  After doing no write-ups for two months, we have found the time to provide two write-ups in a single night for the Shanghai GBM plays of the day.  This post will be dedicated to the Humbert/Tsitsipas matchup, where we will see two 25-year olds face off, with the loser getting the price of being allowed to leave Asia and head back to friendly European confines.


The Pick:  Humbert ML (+155)

Both Manny and Brad believe that Humbert is being significantly undervalued here by the books.  We will break down why

The Stats

The table below shows the stats for both players since July 24

W-LHld%Break%SPW%RPW%
Tsitsipas8-586.919.171.036.2
Humbert12-682.129.763.540.2

  • It's important to call out while all of the matches shown here are on hard court, 4 of Tsitsipas' matches are from Los Cabos, which is an exceptionally slow court.  Excluding Los Cabos, Tsitsipas falls to 4-5 and the underlying stats (hold+break% and SPW+RPW%) fall slightly below Humbert
  • Additionally, Tsitsipas is 19-14 vs. left-handers since the beginning of 2019.  I think this is relevant as Humbert can utilize the forehand into the Tsitsipas backhand.
  • There is an H2H here; it's 2-1 to Ugo Humbert, with all three matches goign to deciding third sets.

The Matchup


For Humbert to win, he needs to execute the strategy shown in this video:  Humbert-Rublev Beijing


Specifically, I want viewers to watch the Humbert forehand.  Humbert is getting a lot of strong, deep forehands in this video.  If he can generate good, deep shots off the forehand wing, he can force Tsitsipas to either move back (more difficult to generate offense) or try the more difficult shot of hitting balls off the rise.  Another good thing to see is Humbert using the wide slice serve here, it definitely behooves him to make Stef his backhands in this matchup, especially outside the tramlines.

Tsitsipas will be allowed to play tennis too in this matchup, even though we are not betting him as backers. I believe that for Tsitsipas to win, he is goign to need to break Humbert's rhythm by moving the backhand to different areas of the court, in an attempt to finish points more quickly.  Tsitsipas will also need to make Humbert hit backhands as the Humbert backhand is flatter and will be easier for Tsitsipas to handle.

In the end, I expect a lot of service holds here.  I think any line here insinuating a close match could be good.  I am happy enough to take the Humbert moneyline here and hope for the postitive side of variance in a match that appears on paper to be close to even (maybe Tsitsipas should be a slight favorite)

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