Shanghai Day 6 Write-ups! Mannarino vs. Rublev
Hi All!
We are back to the blog after a long layoff of doing videos. That said, Loudmouth has gotten noticeably uglier in the past month and so it is time to go back to blogs. Today, we will look at a match between Adrian Mannarino and Andrey Rublev!
(Yes I know this match is on a hard court. But those pics looked cool...)
OK, so why are we on an old dude to win a set vs. the powerful and mighty Rublev who has been a mainstay in the top 10 for years now?
The stats
Here are the players' stats since August 1 (looking at current form)
Looking at these stats, these two players are playing at a similar level. Two notes on the interesting disparity between Mannarino leading in hold/break% while Rublev leads in points won%.
1) I wouldn't be surprised if Mannarino is playing more strategically at this point in his career and playing the score a bit in games where the score is 30-0 or 40-0 in order to conserve energy.
2) Mannarino probably is due for some regression at some point, but he's still playing at a really high level right now.
Obviously if we look at a larger sample, things will start to diverge as Rublev has obviously had the better career, especially in the past 2 years.
It's also worth noting there is an H2H here, 3 matches on indoor hard courts (one in '19, one in '21, and one in '22). Rublev leads 2-1 and Mannarino was only competitive in one of the three matches. I did look into Rublev stats vs. left-handers, but there's nothing to suggest that lefties give Rublev any particular trouble.
The breakdown
Overall, I expect Rublev to struggle with Mannarino's flat ball. Rublev would prefer a higher ball around waist height or slightly higher than he can hit out on; it's a bit easier for him to strike. If you have a TennisTv subscription, you can watch his match vs. Mackie McDonald in Toronto to see this (Rublev loses 6-3 6-4). Basically, when the ball stayed low Rublev was forced to play neutral balls and was forced to contend with the net. I believe this is because Rublev doesn't move forward particularly well. As for Mannarino, he will need to re-direct Rublev's pace. Mannarino has made a career out of doing this but it will be key for Mannarino to keep the ball low. Mannarino is under-powered in this matchup so any balls above waist height will be crushed. It will also be key for Mannarino to move forward when he has Rublev in trouble as Rublev will have more room for error in baselien exchanges.
Overall, we like Mannarino here, any pro-Mannarino line is fine. Rublev is the better player and deserves to be favored, but we feel that the Rublev price is too short. We've gone for the -1.5 sets line (concerns about Rublev intensity and potential Mannarino fatigue from long run in Astana), but Mannarino is slightly undervalued across all lines here so we believe this is a "choose your Mannarino-own adventure line". For reference, the moneyline is currently sitting at Mannarino +275...
Feel free to tail and good luck in your bets!
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