Newport SF write-up - Mannarino vs. Humbert!

 And we're back with another write-up on Betting Down The House!  The Game, Bet, Match podcast has been covering the vast majority of matches at Wimbledon & the 250s, so there hasn't really been a reason to write for you loyal readers.  We're on a bit of a hiatus from the podcast this weekend so you'll get a semi-final writeup and (maybe?) a finals write-up as well if there's an interesting match.  The selected match for this write-up is a battle of two Frenchmen with excellent hair styles; the nicely shaved Adrian Mannarino takes on the luscious lettuce of Ugo Humbert




Definitely choosing the Mannarino look, but anyways onto the tennis match.  This match is a pure pick'em (both players are -110 on the ML), so we have a very binary choice here; we will need to pick a Frenchman to win the match and it's just a matter of which one.

The Pick:  Mannarino + 1 head of hair (aka Moneyline) (-110)

OK, so why are we picking Mannarino?  First, the stats.  Let's look at stats for these two players on grass over the past 2 years:


2023W-LHld%Break%SPW%RPW%Best Result
Mannarino10-480.027.564.038.2Queens Club QF, Newport SF, Den Bosch QF
Humbert3-380.823.163.637.0Newport SF
2022W-LHld%Break%SPW%RPW%Best Result
Mannarino4-580.217.263.436.2Den Bosch SF
Humbert3-583.014.165.934.2Wimbledon R2

First, I did want to caveat that Humbert did have an extremely impressive title run in Halle in 2021, which is not being included in these stats.  It's a sidenote that needs to be mentioned, I'm not sure it's super-relevant but here at Betting Down the House we try to present an argument for both sides

The key takeaways from these stats:

  • First, these stats come from Tennis abstract.  I can't thank these guys enough (Jeff Sackmann); these stats are incredible.  Jeff is also kind enough to make his match-level data available for download so that amateurs like myself can grind the data!
  • In general, Mannarino is probably being a bit overvalued on a general level.  14 matches is not the biggest sample size, there's been some improvement in his play, but the biggest difference in why he's winning more matches is that in 2023 on grass, he's converting 36/64 (56.7%) of break points this year; that is not sustainable for any mere mortal against ATP level competition (and I'm pretty sure that Mannarino's straight set loss to Medvedev showed that he is a human).
  • Humbert's run in Halle looks like an outlier compared to the stats we've seen the previous two years on grass, when Humbert has looked very average.
I'd say this is a slight edge to Mannarino.  Now, onto the matchup:

The Matchup 

The second reason why this is a pick 'em despite the difference in current form is Humbert's H2H win over Mannarino, which was a 6-3 6-3 6-1 win at this year's French Open.  I am discarding this entirely, Mannarino struggles mightily on high-bouncing clay court as they mitigate his flat forehand.  Here's the video evidence:



You'll see a few things here:

  1. As previously stated, Mannarino struggles on any surface with a high bounce.  Mannarino's flat ball gets depth by skidding through the court; it's extremely hard for him to get enough depth on a clay court to hold off the groundstrokes of a big hitter like Ugo Humbert.
  2. It's going to be crucial for Mannarino to hit with precision and accuracy in this match.  Ugo's game is too big and anything in the middle of the court is going to get drilled.  Also, Mannarino needs to do everything in his power to keep the ball down in this matchup (both for his shots and Humbert's shots)
  3. I believe Mannarino has an advantage if he can get into "scramble type" of rallies.

Overall, both players have paths to victory in this matchup, this is by no means a lock.  My numbers tell me that Mannarino is 55-58% likely to win, so as long as you can get him at -125 or better, there is some (although limited) value here in taking him.  But it's far from a lock, unfortunately, with only six matches on the board, there are really no locks on ATP 250 semifinals day.  Good luck to all who bet this!

The pick: Mannarino ML (-110, anything better than -125 will do)


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