Wimbledon Day 6 write-up - Fokina vs. Rune

 Hi all!

Welcome again to BETTING DOWN THE HOUSE!  We're back again with another write-up for you.  Sorry about the long write-up of the Hurkacz-Musetti over that just missed.  While the first two sets were extremely close, Hubi won a couple of key points in each of those sets and then ran away with the third set.  If Musetti wins one of those sets, we would have cashed another ticket.  Such is life in betting where even when the read is right, sometimes the putt (or the bet in this case) misses the hole :(

Today's preview is Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs. Holger Rune, in a battle of two physically gifted players who really don't like to win matches easily.

The Pick: Over 38.5 games (-120)

Overall, we'll first look at both players' playstyles:

Holger Rune

At the ripe old age of 20 years old, Holger Rune is ranked 6 on the ATP Tour by points and 5th in ELO (courtesy tennisabstract.com).  On some websites, you will see him listed as Holger Nodskov Vitrus Rune (which should probably automatically raise his ranking to No. 1 in the world).  Holger's strenght is a strong all-court game; Rune is solid on both wings, with good drop shots and passing shots.  Rune also moves well.  Don't ask me, I'm just a loudmouth.  Let's ask a really good tennis player what he thinks.  Andrey Rublev probably qualifies....

“Holger is the guy who runs a lot, and he runs really well. He read the game really well. He’s very talented. He have a good touch. He doesn’t give you any rhythm, because as soon as he have chance he try to do dropshots, he try to hit full power, go to the net, return and go to the net, then serve to the net. So with him, you need really to pass these three, four shots to be able to give your rhythm and to dictate your style of the game.”

Two bros just hugging it out

Statistically, Rune has won ~67% of service points on the year and ~36% of return points, both slightly above average for an ATP player.  Rune's serve may be a bit of a weakness, especially the second serve, where he does double fault nearly 5% of points.  Here's a video of Rune playing well (vs. Rublev in Monte Carlo final, Rublev did win this match but Rune played well).

Here, you see Rune doing what he does best, dictating the rallies (for the most part) and using his variety as an "add-in" to throw off the opponent at the right time.  Also, check out his comfort level on the clay.  Now, there are a few weaknesses in Rune's game in this matchup that need to be discussed.  

• First, while he moves well and is a good athlete, he takes time to wind up on his swing, which plays better on a slower clay court as opposed to a Wimbledon grass court.  
• Second, his movement does not look as comfortable on the grass as other surfaces, especially clay.  
• The serve can be lacking at times as mentioned before.  
• When it comes to the mental side of the game, Rune's variety can sometime be a hindrance for him; he has an occasional tendency to either over-utilize his variety (his match vs. Schwartzman in Miami is a good example of this), or try to over-hit instead of using his strong variety of shots to set up points (see his match vs. DeMinaur in Acapulco for examples of this).  
• Rune also has well known issues with fitness, which cropped up as recently as his French Open match with Francisco Cerundolo.  
• Rune's emotions also can get the best of him and can create drama in the matches; I'm not sure if this helps him or not.  It definitely can hurt him in "close-out" situations in matches (see his match vs. Rublev for examples of this)

In terms of results on grass this year, Rune defeated Cressy, Peniston, and Musetti before falling to De Minaur in the semifinals.  He defeated George Loffhagen and Carballes Baena at Wimbledon, both were straight sets but both required a tiebreak; the match against Baena was actually pretty close and Baena had chances in multiple sets.

Enough about Holger Rune, onto Davidovich Fokina.

Davidovich Fokina

Davidovich Fokina is currently ranked in the mid-30s, he has been ranked ~25-50 in the world now for two years.  The 24-year old fake Spaniard (his father was a russian boxer) is one of the best athletes on the ATP tour.  His game works around his movement and forehand which is excellent when he's hitting it well.  From a pure physical perspective, Fokina's game probably puts him in the mid-teens in terms of ranking pure talent.  However, Fokina's problems can be summed up as mental.  Two key issues in his game mentally:

• Shot selection can be exceptionally poor, especially in tight moments
• Fokina specifically struggles when playing from ahead in a set, and even more so in a match when the crowd is "buzzing".  For a great example of Fokina's poor tactics in big moments costing him matches, one can reference the match against Djokovic at the French Open this year (I would post it but the French Open highlight videos are rather poor and only show a few key poitns)

Statistically, Fokina has won ~63% of points on serve and ~38% on grass.  It must be said that Fokina has been strong on return due to his athletic ability, but his serve is weaker than Rune's (ace% of 3% this year).  In terms of results, Fokina has lost to Lehecka and Pavel Kotov in warmups leading up to this event; in this event, he defeated Fils and Van De Zandschulp to reach this third roudn.

Overall analysis

A couple of things to keep in mind here:

• Rune is a better pure tennis player than Fokina, in almost every stroke in the game (Fokina's return may be better as he is a bit quicker twitch than Rune).  Fokina may also have a slight advantage in athleticism
• That said, both of these individuals are known for "choking" from ahead in sets.  Fokina especially is known for being an exceptional battler but makes unwise choices which cost him sets in key moments

Overall, we like the over 38.5 here, if this goes more than 3 sets, this over should hit.  WHile Rune is definitely the better player, his potential shortcomings could give Fokina a small opppotunity to sink his teeth into the match.  Carballes Baena especially and Loffhagen also nearly took a set off of Fokina, on the countyr, Fokina is a much better player than those two and should be good enough to steal a set and keep the other three sets close.

The Pick: Fokina/Rune over 38.5 (-120)