US Open Day 3 - Tsitsipas vs. Stricker

 Hi All,

WE ARE BAAAACCCCKKK!!!!! Now that we are back to another Grand Slam, it's time to do another write-up of a match taht should be generating more hype.  We've got the cruiserweight championship of the world (or at least the second round), featuring the young 21-year old contender Dom Stricker in the red corner and the 25-year old reigning, defending champion Stefanos Tsitsipas in the blue corner!  (yes I realize that previous statement was basically 100% incorrect but it made sense for the blog)

The betting line is Tsitsipas -6.5 games, moneyline is -800/+525, O/U is set at 35 games.

First set line is Tsitsipas -2, -385/+265 on ML, O/U is 9.5 (over favored at -135/under at +105).  

The Pick: Stricker +6.5 games (-120), also like overs especially in first set

The Breakdown

Tsitsipas is clearly the better player by any objective measure.  He was given a direct entry into the tournament and has a top 10 seed.  Stricker meanwhile qualified into the tournament and the list of players he has beaten in grand slam main draws starts and ends with Alexei Popyrin.  That said, here are Tsitsipas last five results vs Left-Handers:

  • 7-6, 7-6 W vs. Ben Shelton (2023 Cincinnati)
  • 7-5, 6-3, 4-6, 7-6 win vs. Jiri Vesely (2023 Roland Garros)
  • 6-3, 6-2 W vs. Shapovalov (2023 Barcelona)
  • 6-3, 7-6 W vs. Moutet (2022 Paris Masters)
  • 7-6, 6-2 W vs. Dougaz (2022 Davis Cup)
Looking at these results (especially the most recent one), we see several tiebreaks vs. left-handers, and Tsitsipas only covered a 4 game spread in two of these matches (Dougaz who he overmatches and Shapo who can go Shapo).

Another stat worth noting on Tsitsipas; on medium-pace or quicker hard courts in 2023 (Australian Open, Rotterdam, Cincinnati, Toronto), only 4 of Tsitsipas's 35 sets played have gone under 8 games.



From a quialititative persective, it makes sense that Tsitsipas would struggle to find breaks against left-handers, who can swing the ball wide to the backhand of Tsitsipas, which is clearly the weaker wing.

 
Stricker's strength is attacking; his serve, forehand, and net game are his best weapons, but he is not a great mover around the court and can struggle when rushed. 

Wait, did I just say that about Stricker?  Let me substitute in Tsitsipas's name and try that sentence again....   

Tsitsipas's strength is attacking; his serve, forehand, and net game are his best weapons, but he is not a great mover around the court and can struggle when rushed.   (I think this statement actually makes sense, Tsitsipas is a better mover than Stricker but also isn't particularly quick).

To me, this spells out a ton of holds and close sets.  I'm not sure that Stricker will generate even a single break (or break point) on the Tsitsipas serve.  I'm also not sure he'll have to in order to cover the 6.5 games.

The Pick: Stricker +6.5 games (-120), also like over 10.5 games in first set (+200)

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