Posts

Shanghai Day 6! Humbert vs. Tsitsipas

 OK!  We are back.  After doing no write-ups for two months, we have found the time to provide two write-ups in a single night for the Shanghai GBM plays of the day.  This post will be dedicated to the Humbert/Tsitsipas matchup, where we will see two 25-year olds face off, with the loser getting the price of being allowed to leave Asia and head back to friendly European confines. The Pick:  Humbert ML (+155) Both Manny and Brad believe that Humbert is being significantly undervalued here by the books.  We will break down why The Stats The table below shows the stats for both players since July 24 W-L Hld% Break% SPW% RPW% Tsitsipas 8-5 86.9 19.1 71.0 36.2 Humbert 12-6 82.1 29.7 63.5 40.2 It's important to call out while all of the matches shown here are on hard court, 4 of Tsitsipas' matches are from Los Cabos, which is an exceptionally slow court.  Excluding Los Cabos, Tsitsipas falls to 4-5 and the underlying stats (hold+break% and SPW+RPW%) fall slightly below Humbert Additi
Post a Comment
Read more

Shanghai Day 6 Write-ups! Mannarino vs. Rublev

Image
 Hi All! We are back to the blog after a long layoff of doing videos.  That said, Loudmouth has gotten noticeably uglier in the past month and so it is time to go back to blogs.  Today, we will look at a match between Adrian Mannarino and Andrey Rublev!  (Yes I know this match is on a hard court.  But those pics looked cool...) The Pick:  Mannarino to win a set (-105) OK, so why are we on an old dude to win a set vs. the powerful and mighty Rublev who has been a mainstay in the top 10 for years now? The stats Here are the players' stats since August 1 (looking at current form) W-L Hld% Break% SPW% RPW% Rublev 6-4 79.2 27.8 65.0 41.3 Mannarino 13-4 82.1 29.7 63.5 40.2 Looking at these stats, these two players are playing at a similar level.  Two notes on the interesting disparity between Mannarino leading in hold/break% while Rublev leads in points won%.   1)  I wouldn't be surprised if Mannarino is playing more strategically at this point in his career and playing the score a b
Post a Comment
Read more

Day 4 US Open Write-up - Wawrinka vs. Etcheverry!

 And we're back (back again! [Loudmouth's back, tell a friend.  He is back, he is back, he is back, he is back, na na na....) Alright, enough bad Eminem rapping.  But we are pretty pumped since our bet came through yesterday...Stricker won outright but easily covered the 6.5 (in fact, the only two sets Tsitsipas won were both tiebreaks!)  Onto today's match, where we have the older, big-hitting, slightly immobile Stan Wawrinka vs. the younger, big-hitting, slightly immobile Tomas Martin Etcheverry. The Pick: Wawrinka -5 games (-110) First of all, a statistical comparison between the two players: W-L Hld% Break% SPW% RPW% Wawrinka 12-7 82.2 19.7 65.9 35.7 Etcheverry 5-6 76.6 19.1 62.7 35.6 Overall, we can see that Wawrinka overall is a bit better, mostly due to performing better on serve (82% vs. 77% hold percentage for Etch). Also, it's worth looking at each player's recent form, looking at performance since Aug 1.   Etcheverry's last 3 matches: vs. Virtanen (US
Post a Comment
Read more

US Open Day 3 - Tsitsipas vs. Stricker

 Hi All, WE ARE BAAAACCCCKKK!!!!! Now that we are back to another Grand Slam, it's time to do another write-up of a match taht should be generating more hype.  We've got the cruiserweight championship of the world (or at least the second round), featuring the young 21-year old contender Dom Stricker in the red corner and the 25-year old reigning, defending champion Stefanos Tsitsipas in the blue corner!  (yes I realize that previous statement was basically 100% incorrect but it made sense for the blog) The betting line is Tsitsipas -6.5 games, moneyline is -800/+525, O/U is set at 35 games. First set line is Tsitsipas -2, -385/+265 on ML, O/U is 9.5 (over favored at -135/under at +105).   The Pick: Stricker +6.5 games (-120), also like overs especially in first set The Breakdown Tsitsipas is clearly the better player by any objective measure.  He was given a direct entry into the tournament and has a top 10 seed.  Stricker meanwhile qualified into the tournament and the list of
Post a Comment
Read more

Newport SF write-up - Mannarino vs. Humbert!

Image
 And we're back with another write-up on Betting Down The House!  The Game, Bet, Match podcast has been covering the vast majority of matches at Wimbledon & the 250s, so there hasn't really been a reason to write for you loyal readers.  We're on a bit of a hiatus from the podcast this weekend so you'll get a semi-final writeup and (maybe?) a finals write-up as well if there's an interesting match.  The selected match for this write-up is a battle of two Frenchmen with excellent hair styles; the nicely shaved Adrian Mannarino takes on the luscious lettuce of Ugo Humbert Definitely choosing the Mannarino look, but anyways onto the tennis match.  This match is a pure pick'em (both players are -110 on the ML), so we have a very binary choice here; we will need to pick a Frenchman to win the match and it's just a matter of which one. The Pick:  Mannarino + 1 head of hair (aka Moneyline) (-110) OK, so why are we picking Mannarino?   First, the stats .  Let'
Post a Comment
Read more

Wimbledon Day 6 write-up - Fokina vs. Rune

Image
 Hi all! Welcome again to BETTING DOWN THE HOUSE!  We're back again with another write-up for you.  Sorry about the long write-up of the Hurkacz-Musetti over that just missed.  While the first two sets were extremely close, Hubi won a couple of key points in each of those sets and then ran away with the third set.  If Musetti wins one of those sets, we would have cashed another ticket.  Such is life in betting where even when the read is right, sometimes the putt (or the bet in this case) misses the hole :( Today's preview is Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs. Holger Rune, in a battle of two physically gifted players who really don't like to win matches easily. The Pick: Over 38.5 games (-120) Overall, we'll first look at both players' playstyles: Holger Rune At the ripe old age of 20 years old, Holger Rune is ranked 6 on the ATP Tour by points and 5th in ELO (courtesy  tennisabstract.com ).  On some websites, you will see him listed as Holger Nodskov Vitrus Rune (whic
Post a Comment
Read more

Day 5 Wimbledon Match Write-up - Musetti vs. Hurkacz!

Image
 Hi everyone, back to the write-up grind!  Your favorite loudmouth was too sleepy last night after the GBM Pod and fell asleep on his laptop in the middle of the Raonic-Paul write-up.  Too bad, you literally would have seen that the write-up said that Paul was a better tennis player to the tune of 3-0, but that his choking tendencies + Raonic's serve gave Raonic a chance of winning one set, but winning two was highly unlikely.  Alas, I don't get to count it because I didn't complete the assignment (though GBM did cash the bet so at the end of the day, hope you tailed us and cashed too!).   While we are staying at it, we also called the Sinner-Schwartzman match quite well, we told you to lay up to 10 games if necessary (Sinner ended up winning by 11games, 7-5 6-2 6-1). Live photo of Loudmouth sleeping last night OK, enough of the past (thanks  Rafiki ).  Onto today's write-up where we have a matchup of two top-20 players, Lorenzo Musetti vs. Hubert Hurkacz!  Will the you
Post a Comment
Read more